Misconceptions about Transfer and Seniors in 2021

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Misconceptions about Transfer and Seniors in 2021

Post by BigWave96744 »

There seems to be a lot of misconceptions about players entering the Transfer Portal and what will become of current seniors come 2021.

I'll try to explain what I know
-> Players will exodus to Washington St
---->> True maybe 1 or 2 "MAY" be offered a scholie to Wazzu, but Rolo is already heavily recruiting 3-5* guys and has many commits already. When Rolo left for Nevada, how many followed? I think zero.

-> Players are being forced out by the new staff who wants to play "Their Guys"
----->> Any new coach will evaluate the entire team and play the best players who fit and buy into their system. At last check Rolo has 11 guys in the transfer portal including John Bledsoe (Drew's son), a 4* WR and many 3* players. Coaches see the players more than any media or fan

-> Players who enter the transfer portal are bust, unhappy, in the doghouse.
----->> While this may be true for some, there are others who graduate with their degree before their eligibility is up. These players need to apply and be accepted into grad school. They cannot just keep taking classes and be on scholarship. Some players may want to use this opportunity to attend a grad school with a certain major in mind or just play closer to home (as some Hawaii bounce backs have done).

-> I heard Bobby Curran bring up the next but I don't know if its true, but a scholarship player cannot return to the team the next season as a walkon (scholarships are renewed yearly).

-> There may be some current seniors on scholie that haven't cracked the 1st or 2nd string and may not have their scholie renewed next season in order to make room for incoming recruits.

-> Finally some player may suddenly leave or prepare for Pro-Day because they are more athletes than students and either didn't qualify academically or do not wish to continue taking classes.

There may be more legitimate reasons but I wanted to clear up the air before people start believing negativr rumors and critizing players or coaches.

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Re: Misconceptions about Transfer and Seniors in 2021

Post by sarvicdar »

With 85 scholarships to work with, Graham has to maximize his return in order for his team to get better. That's part of the ecosystem for the HC, and to use the analogy, he has to rid the deadwood (some underperforming players, or players that are not in the teams plans) to save the forest (his job). This is understandable. This Covid year, where scholarship players retain an extra season complicates Graham's decision further. For 2021 he has to recruit a new class, yet there exist less scholarships available because of this year's players returning. I would expect to see more players enter the transfer portal.

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Re: Misconceptions about Transfer and Seniors in 2021

Post by Irse »

sarvicdar wrote: Tue Dec 15, 2020 12:49 pm With 85 scholarships to work with, Graham has to maximize his return in order for his team to get better. That's part of the ecosystem for the HC, and to use the analogy, he has to rid the deadwood (some underperforming players, or players that are not in the teams plans) to save the forest (his job). This is understandable. This Covid year, where scholarship players retain an extra season complicates Graham's decision further. For 2021 he has to recruit a new class, yet there exist less scholarships available because of this year's players returning. I would expect to see more players enter the transfer portal.
The seniors that return will not be counted against the 85. Scholarship numbers increase for next year, provided the school can afford it.
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Re: Misconceptions about Transfer and Seniors in 2021

Post by BigWave96744 »

Irse wrote: Tue Dec 15, 2020 2:14 pm
sarvicdar wrote: Tue Dec 15, 2020 12:49 pm With 85 scholarships to work with, Graham has to maximize his return in order for his team to get better. That's part of the ecosystem for the HC, and to use the analogy, he has to rid the deadwood (some underperforming players, or players that are not in the teams plans) to save the forest (his job). This is understandable. This Covid year, where scholarship players retain an extra season complicates Graham's decision further. For 2021 he has to recruit a new class, yet there exist less scholarships available because of this year's players returning. I would expect to see more players enter the transfer portal.
The seniors that return will not be counted against the 85. Scholarship numbers increase for next year, provided the school can afford it.
Not many schools can afford it after 2020

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Re: Misconceptions about Transfer and Seniors in 2021

Post by cabanalane »

Related question. Will the roster size be allowed to increase? Let's assume no one leaves, and there's new guys coming in. That's kind of like classroom size. That would stress out the Teachers who now have more students per class. Looking at ahead, the Freshman class is going to be 2X. Real newbie Freshman players, and COVID19 Freshmans, who got another year. This bulge will continue on and by Jr and Sr year, a lot of guys are not going to play. Recruiting must be hard. Some kids don't mature fully until their Sr year (or later). Many schools canceled their program. Sucks big time for kids that never got that final chance to prove themselves in HS.

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Re: Misconceptions about Transfer and Seniors in 2021

Post by BigWave96744 »

cabanalane wrote: Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:38 pm Related question. Will the roster size be allowed to increase? Let's assume no one leaves, and there's new guys coming in. That's kind of like classroom size. That would stress out the Teachers who now have more students per class. Looking at ahead, the Freshman class is going to be 2X. Real newbie Freshman players, and COVID19 Freshmans, who got another year. This bulge will continue on and by Jr and Sr year, a lot of guys are not going to play. Recruiting must be hard. Some kids don't mature fully until their Sr year (or later). Many schools canceled their program. Sucks big time for kids that never got that final chance to prove themselves in HS.
Every school around the nation is facing this and many players in every class will not be retained and the transfer portal will be fetile grounds.

More than anytime this winter LOI day is important to take what you are offered. There may be some players waiting for the Feb LOI day only to find schools are maxed out.

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Re: Misconceptions about Transfer and Seniors in 2021

Post by Irse »

BigWave96744 wrote: Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:14 pm
cabanalane wrote: Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:38 pm Related question. Will the roster size be allowed to increase? Let's assume no one leaves, and there's new guys coming in. That's kind of like classroom size. That would stress out the Teachers who now have more students per class. Looking at ahead, the Freshman class is going to be 2X. Real newbie Freshman players, and COVID19 Freshmans, who got another year. This bulge will continue on and by Jr and Sr year, a lot of guys are not going to play. Recruiting must be hard. Some kids don't mature fully until their Sr year (or later). Many schools canceled their program. Sucks big time for kids that never got that final chance to prove themselves in HS.
Every school around the nation is facing this and many players in every class will not be retained and the transfer portal will be fetile grounds.

More than anytime this winter LOI day is important to take what you are offered. There may be some players waiting for the Feb LOI day only to find schools are maxed out.
Yep. this year will pretty much be chaos.
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Re: Misconceptions about Transfer and Seniors in 2021

Post by cabanalane »

High School players need to pull a Mosi Tatupu. When Punahou drafted him they threw him back to the 10th grade. So he was a 21 year old man dragging along four buck fifty kids across the goal line. Touchdown.. Mosi was the reason why they change the rules to 20 years old. So if a kid is 18 Sr. Just flunk out, so there's another year of "eligibility" for HS varsity football. Might get into a better college later on. And the rest is history.

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Re: Misconceptions about Transfer and Seniors in 2021

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cabanalane wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:17 pm High School players need to pull a Mosi Tatupu. When Punahou drafted him they threw him back to the 10th grade. So he was a 21 year old man dragging along four buck fifty kids across the goal line. Touchdown.. Mosi was the reason why they change the rules to 20 years old. So if a kid is 18 Sr. Just flunk out, so there's another year of "eligibility" for HS varsity football. Might get into a better college later on. And the rest is history.
Saw him play at the old stadium. He just ran over a player and left him lying on his back. :o
Not doubting, not hating, not loving, just hoping because I am a fan.

Wyoming kicked our butts!


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Re: Misconceptions about Transfer and Seniors in 2021

Post by TheDuke »

Coach stated that MWC decided to implement 85 scholarship max restriction.

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Re: Misconceptions about Transfer and Seniors in 2021

Post by BigWave96744 »

NCAA football: College players could end up stranded in 2021
“We’re going to see a situation this year where there could be up to 1,000 players in the portal with nowhere to go,” said South Florida coach Jeff Scott.

How will that happen? As of Wednesday morning, there were more than 750 FBS football players in the NCAA transfer portal. That number is increasing by dozens each day, and will only get bigger with the end of the semester. The players are looking to take advantage of the NCAA’s one-time transfer rule, which is expected to be passed early next year.

But that giant number comes with a jarring reality that has some coaches startled. The NCAA’s ruling this summer to give all fall athletes staying at their school an extra year of eligibility is going to expand rosters past the 85-man roster limit for next season. That will limit places transfers can go. (As of now, there’s a one-year waiver to go beyond 85 in 2021.)

The seniors returning for an extra year are going to limit opportunities for younger players within the program, which will mean even more transferring. Also, the one-time transfer rule is expected to lead to a flurry of Group of Five transfers looking to upgrade to bigger schools.

All of this action flowing into the NCAA transfer portal, however, is constrained by some rules that have coaches and administrators projecting a limit on opportunity.

There are three limits that coaches need to worry about. The first is 85 scholarships, which is easy.

The rest requires an accounting degree and reads like something from a scientific journal, as football is the only sport that limits the numbers of players who can be signed each year. There’s a limit of 25 “initial counters” in a recruiting cycle, which is a complicated metric that can be manipulated by back-counting, blueshirting and other methods.

What’s in the crosshairs here is different. It’s the 25-player annual signing limit more commonly referred to as “hard cap.” The hard cap is a limit of 25 players from Aug. 1 through July 31, whereas the “initial counter” limit is per recruiting class.

The influx of available/transferring players and no extra scholarship slots because of the “hard cap” creates a predictable logjam that has some worried the NCAA has no answers for.

A compliance source backs up Scott’s projection and said there “easily” could be 1,000 players left without scholarships. That would be a nightmare for the NCAA, if logistics limited opportunity.

“I do think there are a lot of guys who’ll end up holding the bag without a place to go,” said Rivals.com Southeast recruiting analyst Woody Wommack. “You have the class of 2021 signing, the most transfers ever and a senior class that isn’t going anywhere. That’s made it really cloudy.”

The scary part of a player going into the portal is that they essentially give up their scholarship at their current school once they enter, which means players could end up dropping levels or not playing at all because of lack of opportunity. Not all players fully understand that risk. Scott points out that while coaches can monitor the portal for players, players lack a realtime dashboard of which schools have what amount of availability on their roster. There’s no available statistical indicator of how limited spots are, which leads to bad decisions.

What are the ripples of the roster logjam? One Group of Five head coach pointed out two potential reverberations. He said that the real roster issues are going to come in 2022, as the exemption to be over 85 scholarship players is expected to be gone, but a majority of the roster still has an extra year. That’s going to potentially limit the amount of high school players in the class of 2022.

“What 2022 looks like is crazy,” the Group of Five head coach said. “Now that you have to get under the 85 threshold, it’s a scramble. What can you bring in in 2022? That’s a problem.

“If your son is in high school and he has a 2022 scholarship offer, he should commit right now.”
https://sports.yahoo.com/could-hundreds ... 22627.html

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Re: Misconceptions about Transfer and Seniors in 2021

Post by Irse »

Looks like there will be a lot of players with nowhere to go.
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Re: Misconceptions about Transfer and Seniors in 2021

Post by kapakahi »

With no local HS football season along with the extension of the recruit dead period through mid-April 2021 (i.e., no in-person recruiting contact between coaches & prospects) thereby limiting their exposure to available 2019 junior season & workout film), lots of sleeper 2021 local HS prospects (like Kaimuki HS WR Koby Moananu) will remain under-the-recruiting radar (at least to mainland programs) and be left with less (or maybe no) scholarship offers/options.... https://twitter.com/AHoshidaSports/status/1347311105320787968

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Re: Misconceptions about Transfer and Seniors in 2021

Post by BigWave96744 »

Anyone know if the MWC still has their added layer of rules on transfers within the conference or has it been waived for 2021?

I saw the SEC has their added rule that transfers with only 1 year left can only be granted if they are a graduate transfer.

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Re: Misconceptions about Transfer and Seniors in 2021

Post by kapakahi »

BigWave96744 wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:19 am Anyone know if the MWC still has their added layer of rules on transfers within the conference or has it been waived for 2021?

I saw the SEC has their added rule that transfers with only 1 year left can only be granted if they are a graduate transfer
The MWC intra-conference transfer rule at least through the 2019 season was that a player cannot be with different MWC programs in consecutive seasons....to prevent players from transferring directly from a MWC program to another MWC program.

This MWC intra-conference transfer rule might still apply....since you never hear of any player transferring directly between different MWC programs (even graduate transfers) like what happens regularly in the Pac-12 Conference.

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