Coronavirus

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ubercow
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ubercow »

saw a report today in a louisville paper noting how kentucky and their nearby states appear to have extremely high spike of deaths by pneumonia between feb & may (which hints and severe under-reporting of covid cases). It's behind a paywall so it's not really worth clicking:
https://www.courier-journal.com/story/n ... 245237002/

so using the public gov sources that they're likely using: ( https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm , https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html ) I wanted to figure out how Hawaii is doing on the scale. It turns out, we're one of the best.

Here's the numbers, sorted from highest discrepancy (worst at top). The first column of numbers below is the average annual deaths from Flu & Pneumonia from 2011-2018 (12 months). The second column is the number of Flu & Pneumonia deaths from February 1 - May 23 (almost 4 months)

The worst part about this is from Feb-May most people were forced to stay home. Really hard to get flu/pneumonia at home.

Code: Select all

data removed, more accurate data posted later in this thread

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Re: Coronavirus

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Re: Coronavirus

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Re: Coronavirus

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We've reached phase 3 of re-opening here which means I get to teach again. I'm very happy Hawaii has done so well during this global tragedy as well. Stay safe everyone. Wear a mask and be careful. Aloha.

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Re: Coronavirus

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Re: Coronavirus

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uhwarriors
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Re: Coronavirus

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I found this in one of the articles Kailuaboy posted a link to. Very interesting info on Covid-19's mortality rate against other causes of deaths between February to May.

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https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-1 ... ath-2020-5

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Re: Coronavirus

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uhwarriors wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 11:43 pm
I found this in one of the articles Kailuaboy posted a link to. Very interesting info on Covid-19's mortality rate against other causes of deaths between February to May.

Image

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-1 ... ath-2020-5
One must also take into account the toll this nasty disease has taken on our resources and freedom. Things like PPE's and intensive care units are not depleted/overwhelmed by cancer or heart patients. They ARE overwhelmed by covid-19 patients. Health care professionals are not killed by taking care of cancer patients or those suffering from heart disease! The elderly are not killed by health care professionals after those professionals have treated a cancer patient. Our elderly are killed after their care-givers have been exposed to the corona virus. This is a tenacious virus that kills more people.

Your post is very unclear so I am not sure what you find interesting about the info. I do hope that you find it as alarming as I do. Please do not let down your guard.

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Re: Coronavirus

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SundayJam wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:28 am
uhwarriors wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 11:43 pm
I found this in one of the articles Kailuaboy posted a link to. Very interesting info on Covid-19's mortality rate against other causes of deaths between February to May.

Image

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-1 ... ath-2020-5
One must also take into account the toll this nasty disease has taken on our resources and freedom. Things like PPE's and intensive care units are not depleted/overwhelmed by cancer or heart patients. They ARE overwhelmed by covid-19 patients. Health care professionals are not killed by taking care of cancer patients or those suffering from heart disease! The elderly are not killed by health care professionals after those professionals have treated a cancer patient. Our elderly are killed after their care-givers have been exposed to the corona virus. This is a tenacious virus that kills more people.

Your post is very unclear so I am not sure what you find interesting about the info. I do hope that you find it as alarming as I do. Please do not let down your guard.
I find it interesting from the perspective of disturbing or alarming as you see it. It's a much more deadly than most other causes of death in particular the flu. And as you've pointed out much more contagious and it can overwhelm the medical system and supplies.

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Re: Coronavirus

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uhwarriors wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 11:43 pm
I found this in one of the articles Kailuaboy posted a link to. Very interesting info on Covid-19's mortality rate against other causes of deaths between February to May.

Image

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-1 ... ath-2020-5
I thought the numbers looked weird but they're using CDC wonder for data (historical). So everything in blue is not this year, but an average from previous years, only the red line is this year. For example from that number crunch I did for flu/pneumonia with current year's data, from Feb 1-May 30 2020, the Flu/Pneumonia fatality count is 66,256 which is more than triple what the average is supposed to be. Hmm, this reminds me that cdc wonder data can be broken down by month, maybe I'll re-crunch the numbers to get exact Feb-May comparisons. most flu/pneumonia deaths are nov-jan anyway so the annual numbers I was comparing against is very skewed.

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Re: Coronavirus

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ubercow wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:50 am
I thought the numbers looked weird but they're using CDC wonder for data (historical). So everything in blue is not this year, but an average from previous years, only the red line is this year. For example from that number crunch I did for flu/pneumonia with current year's data, from Feb 1-May 30 2020, the Flu/Pneumonia fatality count is 66,256 which is more than triple what the average is supposed to be. Hmm, this reminds me that cdc wonder data can be broken down by month, maybe I'll re-crunch the numbers to get exact Feb-May comparisons. most flu/pneumonia deaths are nov-jan anyway so the annual numbers I was comparing against is very skewed.
ok re-crunched the numbers with just Feb-May historical data, and used the updated number for Feb 1-May 30 2020, here's a link to the data:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

data sources: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html

data notes: cdc suppresses data if the count for a month is lower than 10 so if you see a high %suppressed next to a state, their average flu+pneumonia deaths should be a bit lower, so the fatality and multiplier should be bumped higher. multiplier is how many times higher 2020's deaths are over average and Hawaii has the second best numbers. Used 2010-2017 (and not 2018) because 2018's numbers didn't look complete. Totals at the bottom, averages used for %suppressed and multiplier

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Re: Coronavirus

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This is what BKK airport looks like now.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/ge ... t-positive

They're slowly allowing Thais to return home here and all new infections have been returnees in the last 12 days. Today, the 2 reported returnees were both asymptomatic. Some are not showing positive until a second test is given.

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Re: Coronavirus

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